Küresel rekabetin giderek bilgiye dayalı üretim yapıları etrafında şekillendiği günümüzde, ülkelerin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme hedeflerine ulaşmasında üretim çeşitliliği, teknoloji yoğunluğu ve dışa açıklık büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Endeksi; ülkelerin ihracat yapılarındaki sofistikasyon düzeyini yansıtarak büyümenin niteliğini açıklamada yeni bir ölçüt olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Diğer yandan, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde büyümeyi destekleyen başlıca dışsal faktörler arasında yer almakta; sermaye birikimi, teknoloji transferi ve küresel entegrasyon gibi kanallar yoluyla ekonomik performansı etkilemektedir.

Bu çalışma, 1998–2023 dönemine ait verilerle Türkiye’de ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Bu çerçevede değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Sınır testi sonuçları, modelde yer alan değişkenler arasında %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Uzun dönemde yalnızca ihracatın ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi bulunurken, kısa dönemde hem ihracat hem de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksini anlamlı düzeyde etkilemektedir. Negatif ve anlamlı hata düzeltme katsayısı ise modelin uzun dönem dengesine dönüş eğilimini doğrulamaktadır. Bu bulgular Türkiye’nin karmaşık bir üretim yapısına sahip olabilmesi için özellikle ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar gibi dışsal büyüme dinamiklerine odaklanması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

In today's world, where global competition is increasingly shaped around knowledge-based production structures, production diversification, technological intensity, and openness to international markets play a crucial role in enabling countries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In this context, the Economic Complexity Index has emerged as a new indicator for explaining the quality of growth by reflecting the level of sophistication in a country’s export structure. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and exports are among the main external factors supporting growth in developing economies, influencing economic performance through channels such as capital accumulation, technology transfer, and global integration.

This study empirically examines the relationships between the economic complexity index, foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in Turkey using data from the period 1998–2023. Within this framework, the short- and long-term relationships among the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The bounds test results reveal a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables in the model at the 1% significance level. In the long run, only exports have a positive and significant effect on the economic complexity index, while in the short run, both exports and foreign direct investment significantly affect the index. The negative and significant error correction coefficient confirms the model's tendency to return to long-term equilibrium. These findings indicate that in order for Turkey to develop a more complex production structure, it should particularly focus on external growth dynamics such as exports and foreign direct investment.

In today's world, where global competition is increasingly shaped around knowledge-based production structures, production diversification, technological intensity, and openness to international markets play a crucial role in enabling countries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In this context, the Economic Complexity Index has emerged as a new indicator for explaining the quality of growth by reflecting the level of sophistication in a country’s export structure. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and exports are among the main external factors supporting growth in developing economies, influencing economic performance through channels such as capital accumulation, technology transfer, and global integration.

This study empirically examines the relationships between the economic complexity index, foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in Turkey using data from the period 1998–2023. Within this framework, the short- and long-term relationships among the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The bounds test results reveal a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables in the model at the 1% significance level. In the long run, only exports have a positive and significant effect on the economic complexity index, while in the short run, both exports and foreign direct investment significantly affect the index. The negative and significant error correction coefficient confirms the model's tendency to return to long-term equilibrium. These findings indicate that in order for Turkey to develop a more complex production structure, it should particularly focus on external growth dynamics such as exports and foreign direct investment.

In today's world, where global competition is increasingly shaped around knowledge-based production structures, production diversification, technological intensity, and openness to international markets play a crucial role in enabling countries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In this context, the Economic Complexity Index has emerged as a new indicator for explaining the quality of growth by reflecting the level of sophistication in a country’s export structure. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and exports are among the main external factors supporting growth in developing economies, influencing economic performance through channels such as capital accumulation, technology transfer, and global integration.

This study empirically examines the relationships between the economic complexity index, foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in Turkey using data from the period 1998–2023. Within this framework, the short- and long-term relationships among the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The bounds test results reveal a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables in the model at the 1% significance level. In the long run, only exports have a positive and significant effect on the economic complexity index, while in the short run, both exports and foreign direct investment significantly affect the index. The negative and significant error correction coefficient confirms the model's tendency to return to long-term equilibrium. These findings indicate that in order for Turkey to develop a more complex production structure, it should particularly focus on external growth dynamics such as exports and foreign direct investment.

In today's world, where global competition is increasingly shaped around knowledge-based production structures, production diversification, technological intensity, and openness to international markets play a crucial role in enabling countries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In this context, the Economic Complexity Index has emerged as a new indicator for explaining the quality of growth by reflecting the level of sophistication in a country’s export structure. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and exports are among the main external factors supporting growth in developing economies, influencing economic performance through channels such as capital accumulation, technology transfer, and global integration.

This study empirically examines the relationships between the economic complexity index, foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in Turkey using data from the period 1998–2023. Within this framework, the short- and long-term relationships among the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The bounds test results reveal a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables in the model at the 1% significance level. In the long run, only exports have a positive and significant effect on the economic complexity index, while in the short run, both exports and foreign direct investment significantly affect the index. The negative and significant error correction coefficient confirms the model's tendency to return to long-term equilibrium. These findings indicate that in order for Turkey to develop a more complex production structure, it should particularly focus on external growth dynamics such as exports and foreign direct investment.